I know three people here in Vegas that have been cut off in two weeks from offshore accounts. They didn't bet the Don Best screen just to follow the moves, they bet them because they saw the lines moving and wanted to get a decent number on games they liked before the line moved too much. Isn't that obviously what most people with half a brain would do? Seems this season the offshore books are really just dumping people left and right since there is so much new business coming on. We all talked about this situation this year and it reminded me of some things I learned about a decade ago.
It seems to me that bookies at these places booting people out never took bookmaking 101. Seems they spend all their time figuring out how each individual player did and ignoring what they are supposed to pay attention to, the houses overall ledger. When I was much younger I had a neighbor that was a bookie. I pestered him enough about it because I wanted to bet, but also wanted to be involved in sports betting. Finally he agreed and started bookin my big whopping $22 bets and even gave me the whole lesson on the business. Seems he had been doing it for 23 years in Southern California and never been caught once. He came from New Jersey fully trained from the battleground out there and taught me a lot of lessons both about his side of the business and on getting the best of it betting as well. Lesson number one to me was: a good bookmaker knows he is doing well when he has lots of decisions! This goes contrary to what all these bookies are learning today. They act like keeping a balanced book is their job. A good book will tell you its not necessarily the job you are there for. A good book doesn't really want decisions, but he knows that if he has them he is usually getting a lot of action. He doesn't mind that because if you get enough action on a game, a decision won't really hurt you. You are often in a position where you are getting 2-1 on your money so even if the wise guys were against you, you still know they don't pick at 67% or better so you are safe in the long run. In the end the juice makes the money whether its balanced book or by enough decisions going your way. Another lesson he told me was good players don't get bounced by real bookies. Fake books as he called them are gamblers (sound familiar Sting?) They are basically gambling that their customers don't know diddly and he will win more than his fair share. He boots winners trying to get the gamblers, but he takes a big risk doing this. The suckers tend to bet on the same sides. If the suckers get lucky one weekend the book can get absolutely crushed if he doesn't have smarter players around, who amazingly seem to be on the other side of the suckers more often than not. After all think about the math, the suckers are going to pick the losing sides and more likely the wise money goes to the winning side. It doesn't work out perfectly, but the theory works in the long run.
So these books booting out "professional players" are breaking two very obvious rules to any real bookmakers. Notice that almost everyone of these places booting out winners is just some investor group hiring some guy out of Vegas who learned things wrong? Most of the books with real old-timers are out welcoming in the smart money and putting limits on it, just the way any Jersey bookmaker would teach you. In their race to say "we take the largest bets" these shops are forced to break pretty important bookmaking rules and I would be a bit afraid of some of them should they have an absolutely disastrous weekend. Their only saving grace is that they have post up funds that can cushion them until the tide turns, but one day that may not even be enough.
It seems to me that bookies at these places booting people out never took bookmaking 101. Seems they spend all their time figuring out how each individual player did and ignoring what they are supposed to pay attention to, the houses overall ledger. When I was much younger I had a neighbor that was a bookie. I pestered him enough about it because I wanted to bet, but also wanted to be involved in sports betting. Finally he agreed and started bookin my big whopping $22 bets and even gave me the whole lesson on the business. Seems he had been doing it for 23 years in Southern California and never been caught once. He came from New Jersey fully trained from the battleground out there and taught me a lot of lessons both about his side of the business and on getting the best of it betting as well. Lesson number one to me was: a good bookmaker knows he is doing well when he has lots of decisions! This goes contrary to what all these bookies are learning today. They act like keeping a balanced book is their job. A good book will tell you its not necessarily the job you are there for. A good book doesn't really want decisions, but he knows that if he has them he is usually getting a lot of action. He doesn't mind that because if you get enough action on a game, a decision won't really hurt you. You are often in a position where you are getting 2-1 on your money so even if the wise guys were against you, you still know they don't pick at 67% or better so you are safe in the long run. In the end the juice makes the money whether its balanced book or by enough decisions going your way. Another lesson he told me was good players don't get bounced by real bookies. Fake books as he called them are gamblers (sound familiar Sting?) They are basically gambling that their customers don't know diddly and he will win more than his fair share. He boots winners trying to get the gamblers, but he takes a big risk doing this. The suckers tend to bet on the same sides. If the suckers get lucky one weekend the book can get absolutely crushed if he doesn't have smarter players around, who amazingly seem to be on the other side of the suckers more often than not. After all think about the math, the suckers are going to pick the losing sides and more likely the wise money goes to the winning side. It doesn't work out perfectly, but the theory works in the long run.
So these books booting out "professional players" are breaking two very obvious rules to any real bookmakers. Notice that almost everyone of these places booting out winners is just some investor group hiring some guy out of Vegas who learned things wrong? Most of the books with real old-timers are out welcoming in the smart money and putting limits on it, just the way any Jersey bookmaker would teach you. In their race to say "we take the largest bets" these shops are forced to break pretty important bookmaking rules and I would be a bit afraid of some of them should they have an absolutely disastrous weekend. Their only saving grace is that they have post up funds that can cushion them until the tide turns, but one day that may not even be enough.
